WR Market Share Statistical Breakdown

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Fantasy Breakdown: Alternative and Effectivity

The rapid-fire nature of the Fantasy Soccer season has given approach to a possibility to breathe, let the mud settle, and dig right into a full NFL yr of information whereas it’s nonetheless comparatively contemporary. There are a lot of instructions one can journey up this mountain of information. On this article, I will probably be taking a look at some helpful metrics for large receivers that showcase two drivers of fantasy manufacturing: alternative and effectivity.

On the floor, quantity and manufacturing drive fantasy scoring. Receptions, yards, and touchdowns immediately produce fantasy factors and clearly shouldn’t be missed or ignored. However they solely inform a chunk of the story and are comparatively much less predictive than another metrics obtainable to us. Many alternative contexts start to materialize when you begin digging slightly deeper.

Vast receiver market share statistics, corresponding to goal share, large receiver goal share, goal price (targets per route), receiving yards per staff cross try (RY/TPA), and air yards share are among the obtainable metrics that successfully measure a participant’s alternative, with air yards moreover as an excellent indicator of the extent of intent to get the ball in a receiver’s arms. Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR), which measures the variety of receiving yards created for each air yard, is a superb measure of a participant’s effectivity as soon as they’ve earned the chance (goal) from the QB. RACR can be vital as a result of it ties in yards after the catch (YAC). Low air yard gamers like Chris Godwin and Deebo Samuel will in flip have a low air yard share, however each have a excessive RACR, which is why you can’t have a look at one thing like air yard share by itself.

That is sometimes the place I start my offseason analysis as a result of alternative and effectivity are stipulations for quantity and manufacturing, respectively, and are usually extra predictive over bigger pattern sizes than statistics like whole yards, targets, and so on. The chart beneath exhibits the statistics mentioned above for the 2021 High 50 WRs (PPR format; ppg foundation).

This chart offers a snapshot of the 2021 season for these peripherals. Reorganizing the information, sorted by fantasy factors per recreation, provides a greater visible of how every participant completed.

There may be a lot to digest right here. For this text, I selected to debate two gamers that stand out as being considerably misplaced based mostly on this knowledge. I added columns to this chart exhibiting how every participant scored their fantasy factors (%FPTS from receptions, %FPTS from yards, and %FPTS from touchdowns) together with TD% (touchdowns per goal).

Mike Evans (TB)

Mike Evans completed because the WR10 on the season with 16.4 PPR factors per recreation in 16 video games. You may see within the chart above that Evans put up below-average numbers throughout the board:

• Goal share: 16.9% (41^st)
• WR goal share: 29.6% (37^th)
• Air yards share: 27.2% (29^th)
• Goal price: 20.1% (36^th)
• RY/TPA: 1.63 (30^th)
• RACR: 0.70 (35^th)

A standard rationalization for Evans’ low numbers can be the “too many mouths to feed” debate. However targets are earned. Granted, on paper, the Buccaneers’ pass-catching group was loaded with expertise. Nevertheless, whereas Evans performed in 16 of 17 video games, Godwin, Brown, and Gronkowski mixed to overlook a complete of 17 video games. A sub-20% goal share and sub-30% WR goal share look even worse inside that context. Additionally, you ideally need to see a excessive quantity for at the very least one in every of air yards share or RACR. A low air yards share with a excessive RACR signifies the receiver will not be being focused very deep however is environment friendly with the air yards and doing injury with YAC. A excessive air yards share with a low RACR signifies deeper targets, the place YAC are a lot much less possible. Being backside half in each, which is the case with Evans, sometimes wouldn’t translate to a WR1 season.

However there aren’t any absolutes in fantasy evaluation. These metrics are usually not finish all be all. Regardless of Evans ending outdoors the High 30 for many of those statistics, he nonetheless completed as a WR1 in fantasy factors per recreation. The vital subsequent query is how?

The straightforward however incomplete reply is touchdowns. Evans’ 12.3% TD% and %FPTS from TDs (32.0%) each lead the league. We are able to hardly fade a participant just because they rating numerous touchdowns. That’s loopy. What must be assessed is the probability this comparatively disproportionate reliance on TDs is repeatable. In 2020, Evans scored 13 TDs on 109 targets for an 11.9% TD% (3^rd highest). In 2021, Evans scored 14 TDs on 114 targets for a 12.3% TD%. Previous to 2020, Evans’ profession TD% was 5.7%. I made the error of fading Evans coming into the 2021 season based mostly solely on this TD% bounce from 5.7% to 11.9%, incorrectly ignoring the truth that this bounce coincided with Tom Brady changing into his QB in Tampa Bay. With Brady, the Buccaneers simply led the league in cross quantity this season (714 passes, 43.3 passes per recreation). This was a serious contributing think about Evans locking up his 8^th straight 1,000-yard season regardless of a 16.9% goal share. Evans ending as a WR1 was largely based mostly on touchdowns and his market share numbers (as little as they have been) being a share of a league-leading passing market.

We’re at some extent within the offseason steeped in uncertainty. Tom Brady retired. We don’t know who the QB will probably be if it’s not Kyle Trask. Godwin and Gronkowski are each unrestricted free brokers probably shifting elsewhere. And Evans will flip 29 years previous on August 21, proper on the sting of what has been proven to be an age cliff in fantasy manufacturing.

% of top-12 fantasy producers (PPR) by age during the last 10 years pic.twitter.com/PTySzVXBq5

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 8, 2022

Evans may simply put up one other 1,000-yard season and sneak into the highest 12 once more. Imagine me, it’s onerous to wager in opposition to him. However you additionally can’t be blinded by his profession accolades. Eight straight 1,000-yard seasons is elite, and Evans is extraordinarily gifted. However that’s not a motive to disregard these numbers, that are pointing on the potential for a downslope. Any downtick in his TDs or the staff’s total passing quantity, mixed with these 2021 peripherals may imply a comparatively disappointing season for Evans in 2022.

D.J. Moore (CAR)

D.J. Moore is on the opposite aspect of this spectrum. Moore completed as the general WR22 with 14.0 PPR ppg in 17 video games. You may see a unique image with Moore’s peripherals:

• Goal share: 28.3% (4^th)
• WR goal share: 45.9% (3^rd)
• Air yards share: 40.1% (4^th)
• Goal price: 27.8% (9^th)
• RY/TPA: 2.34 (6^th)
• RACR: 0.67 (38^th)

Within the second chart, Moore is usually inexperienced throughout the board, just like the High 6 WRs, however barely completed as a WR2 in factors per recreation. That is partially as a result of an absence of TDs. Moore additionally completed with a low RACR, however this makes extra sense as a result of Moore’s 3^rd highest air yard share (greater air yards normally means decrease RACR). For reference, just one WR had an air yard share above 30% and a RACR above 1.0 (Cooper Kupp).

The opposite contributing issue was the alternative of Evans’ scenario. Moore’s High 5 market share numbers have been a part of a smaller and far much less environment friendly passing market in Carolina. The Panthers have been 14^th within the league in cross makes an attempt per recreation (35.2), so center of the pack, proper? Not fairly. Any semblance of a profitable passing assault begins and stops with a 14^th ranked cross makes an attempt per recreation. Past that, the next have been only a few of the Panthers’ passing statistics that inform the story.

• Completions per recreation: 20.5 (25^th)
• Yards per cross try: 6.0 (31^st)
• 3^rd Down Conversion price: 35.7% (29^th; not strictly a passing statistic, however an offense’s success in extending drives is a vital think about a cross catcher’s alternative)

Coupled with Carolina QBs ending the season with a 58.1% completion price (tied for final with the Saints) and 0.67 TD/INT ratio (21 INTs thrown, which was lifeless final), you see how the passing market from which Moore’s market share numbers have been derived was one of many worst within the league.

Moore’s catch price was solely 57.4% however a better aDOT at all times corresponds to a decrease catch price. Moore has by no means scored greater than 4 receiving TDs in a season so I’m not anticipating a big improve in TDs (not everybody can have Tom Brady take over at QB), however his scenario solely has one course it may possibly go: up. With D.J. Moore and his glorious peripheral alternative metrics, even a slight uptick in TDs and a completely believable enchancment in QB play and staff passing effectivity would bode very nicely for him in 2022.

The aim of this text is to not rank these two large receivers or select between the 2. The projections and rankings I’ll be doing for redraft codecs are months away. The aim is to point out two gamers who had completely different outcomes each in fantasy factors per recreation and these superior alternative/effectivity metrics to find out why; to enlarge the context in an effort to make the most effective prediction potential as to the chance of future outcomes.

Scott Rinear

My identify is Scott Rinear and I reside in Seattle, Washington with my spouse, two daughters and golden retriever (Jasper). Our largest ardour as a household is tenting. We camp at the very least 10 instances a yr. My largest ardour personally is fantasy soccer. I’ve been enjoying fantasy soccer since 2006 and began producing content material in 2020. I’m a lifelong Seahawks and Mariners fan and can proceed my fandom for the SuperSonics as soon as they return to Seattle. I like every little thing about soccer, particularly analytics and knowledge evaluation, and I’m a sucker for an excellent spreadsheet. I’m a proud member of the Fantasy Sports activities Writers Affiliation (FSWA).