Impact on Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand: Nomura

by · September 19, 2022

Rice manufacturing in India has fallen by 5.6% yr on yr as of September in gentle of below-average monsoon rainfall, which has affected harvest, Nomura mentioned.

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India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has banned shipments of damaged rice — a transfer that can reverberate throughout Asia, in response to Nomura.

In a bid to regulate home costs, the federal government banned exports of damaged rice and slapped a 20% export tax on a number of styles of rice beginning Sept. 9.

Nomura mentioned the affect on Asia will likely be uneven, and the Philippines and Indonesia will likely be most susceptible to the ban.

India accounts for about 40% of world rice shipments, exporting to greater than 150 international locations.

Exports reached 21.5 million tons in 2021. That is greater than the entire cargo from the following 4 largest exporters of the grain — Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the USA, Reuters reported.

However manufacturing has decreased by 5.6% year-on-year as of Sept 2. in gentle of below-average monsoon rainfall, which affected harvest, Nomura mentioned.

For India, July and August are the “most important” months for rainfall, as they decide how a lot rice is sown, mentioned Sonal Varma, chief economist on the monetary companies agency. This yr, uneven monsoon rain patterns throughout these months have decreased manufacturing, she added.

Massive rice-producing India states comparable to West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are receiving 30% to 40% much less rainfall, Varma mentioned. Though rainfall elevated towards the tip of August, “the extra delayed the sowing [of rice] is, the better is the chance that yield will likely be decrease.”

Earlier this yr, the South Asian nation curbed wheat and sugar exports to regulate rising native costs because the Russia-Ukraine struggle despatched international meals markets into turmoil.

Most affected

The Indian authorities not too long ago introduced that rice manufacturing in the course of the Southwest monsoon season between June and October may fall by 10 to 12 million tons, which suggests that crop yields may dip by as a lot as 7.7% yr on yr, Nomura mentioned.

“The affect of a rice export ban by India could be felt each straight by international locations that import from India and in addition not directly by all rice importers, due to its affect on international rice costs,” in response to a report by Nomura launched not too long ago.

Findings from Nomura revealed that the price of rice has remained excessive this yr, with the rise in costs in retail markets hitting round 9.3% yr on yr in July, in contrast with 6.6% in 2022. Shopper value inflation (CPI) for rice additionally spiked 3.6% year-on-year as of July, up from 0.5% in 2022.

The Philippines, which imports greater than 20% of its rice consumption wants, is the nation in Asia most vulnerable to increased costs, Nomura mentioned.

As Asia’s largest internet importer of the commodity, rice and rice merchandise account for a 25% share of the nation’s meals CPI basket, the best share within the area, in response to Statista.

Inflation within the nation was at 6.3% in August, knowledge from the Philippines Statistics Authority confirmed — above the central financial institution’s goal vary of two% to 4%. In gentle of that, India’s export ban would come as an extra blow to the Southeast Asian nation.

Equally, India’s rice export ban will likely be detrimental to Indonesia as nicely. Indonesia is more likely to be the second-most affected nation in Asia.

Nomura reported that the nation depends on imports for two.1% of its rice consumption wants. And rice makes up about 15% of its meals CPI basket, in response to Statista.

For another Asian international locations, nonetheless, the ache is more likely to be minimal.

Singapore imports all of its rice, with 28.07% of it coming from India in 2021, in response to Commerce Map. However the nation is not as susceptible because the Philippines and Indonesia as “the share of rice within the [country’s] CPI basket is kind of small,” Varma famous.

Customers in Singapore are inclined to spend “a better chunk” of their bills on companies, which usually appears to be the case for higher-income international locations, she mentioned. Low- and middle-income international locations, alternatively, “are inclined to spend a fair bigger proportion of their bills on meals.”

“The vulnerability must be seen from the attitude of each the affect on expenditure for customers and the way dependent international locations [are] on imported meals gadgets,” she added.

Nations that can profit

On the flip aspect, some international locations might be beneficiaries.

Thailand and Vietnam will more than likely to revenue from India’s ban, Nomura mentioned. That is as a result of they’re the world’s second- and third-largest exporters of rice, making them the more than likely options for international locations trying to fill the hole.

Vietnam’s whole rice manufacturing was roughly 44 million tons in 2021, with exports bringing in $3.133 billion, in response to a report revealed in July by analysis agency International Data discovered.

Information from Statista confirmed that Thailand produced 21.4 million tons of rice in 2021, a rise of two.18 million tons from the earlier yr.

With the rise in exports, and India’s ban inserting an upward stress on rice costs, the general worth of rice exports will improve and these two international locations will profit from it.